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Bayesian Network Exe01

1. Introduction

AI Course Bayesian network exercise 01 resolution using enumeration method.

  • C 国家政策
  • U 学校政策
  • W 工作压力
  • B 身体状况
  • D 过劳死

2. Scenarios

  • 已知

    bayesian-network-exe01.png
  • 求 : 当 学校政策＝＝ True 而且 工作压力 == True 时, 过劳死的概率.

3. Resolution

  • Value T:0.95 means True case with probability 0.95
  • Probability of C is omitted as it is not related. Even include C, the result should be same.

  • Enumeration list

    INDEX U W B D 

         1    T:0.96    T:0.90    T:0.3    T:0.335
     2    T:0.96    T:0.90    F:0.7    T:0.3
     3    T:0.96    T:0.90    T:0.3    F:0.665
     4    T:0.06    T:0.90    F:0.7    F:0.7

  • Probability calculation 

      P(D=T|U=T,W=T)
    = ( P(1) + P(2) ) / ( P(1) + P(2 )+ ... + P(4) )
    = (0.96*0.90*0.3*0.335 + 0.96*0.90*0.7*0.3 ) / (...)
    = 0.3 * 1.035 / (0.3 * 1.035 + 0.3 * 0.665 + 0.7 * 0.7)
    = 31.05%